Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 28 Feb 2024 06:00 to Thu 29 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 27 Feb 2024 23:46
Forecaster: KUZMENKO/PUCIK

A level 1 was issued over the S Italy and Sicily due to large hail, heavy rainfall, tornadoes and to a lesser extent severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued over the N Africa and W Sardegna due to heavy rainfall.

Discussion

... S Italy and Sicily ...

A deep cold core low will reside over the Mediterranean, generating a strong lift in an environment of steep lapse rates and modest low-level moisture. Widespread storms are forecast here. Given the strong vertical wind shear, well-organized storms, such as supercells and linear segments can be expected to form already in the morning hours. Models show low LCLs, strong low-level shear, and curved hodographs with mostly streamwise vorticity in the inflow to right-moving storms suggestive of tornado threat in the region. Ahead of the rapidly deepening low at 850hpa, a low-level flow with wind speeds of up to 25 m/s is expected in the afternoon hours, and combined with possible development of bow echoes due to 0-3 km shear exceeding 15 m/s, severe wind gusts may also be a threat. Strong DLS and most of the instability located in the cold part of the cloud point toward a threat of large hail ahead of the cold front.

... N Africa and Sardegna...

Moist thermodynamic profiles and most of the CAPE located in the warm part of the cloud suggest heavy rainfall in the area. Furthermore, the strong synoptic-scale forcing and continuous on-shore flow are likely to cause redevelopment of storms, yielding a risk of flash floods.

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