Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 10 Jun 2025 06:00 to Wed 11 Jun 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2025 22:00
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued across N half of Portugal and NW Spain mainly for heavy rainfall, large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued across Spain mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
A level 2 was issued across central Russia mainly for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for northern Russia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for southern Russia to Caucasus mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION
... Portugal to NW Spain ...
A pronounced low over the Atlantic will slowly approach Iberia with short-wave swinging from south to north during the forecast period. Strong mid to upper tropospheric flow is located on the forward flank of the low, yielding strongly sheared environment. Towards the evening, a cold front of the low will progress eastwards and will begin to affect the area.
With strong daytime heating over the interior Spain, an elevated mixed layer with steep lapse rates will be advected towards Portugal and NW Spain. Here, a convergence zone will set up between very dry air from east and westerly moist flow. Moisture pooling in the zone will result in a band of 1000 - 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, overlapping with 15 - 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. Storms will be primarily initiated by the advancing cold front. With mean wind pointing towards the cooler air west side of the front, much of the storm activity will be elevated and storms will encounter decreasing CAPE values. Nevertheless, there will be threat of large to very large hail and heavy rainfall. Very large hail is more likely especially in the beginning of the period and with right-moving supercells that manage to stay in the higher CAPE area. Severe wind gust threat will be pronounced especially in the east of the highlighted area and in the early stage of the situation, when surface-based convection will be more likely. Heavy rainfall threat may continue well overnight with multiple possible waves of storms as the front only slowly passes to the east.
... Spain ...
Convective initiation is forecast over higher terrain or along the boundaries of moist upslope flow and dry air over the higher terrain. Expect mostly isolated to widely scattered storms. Storms will develop in 10 to 15 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear and primarily become multicellular in nature. Given locally high CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and/or deep Inverted-V profiles, large hail and severe wind gusts, along with locally heavy rainfall are likely with stronger storms.
... Germany to Poland ...
A rapidly moving short-wave trough will cross the region in the afternoon to early evening hours along with a cold front. Ingredients are marginal for deep, moist convection with modest moisture and mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Models simulate enhanced low-level shear, but with skinny CAPE profiles and rather stable low levels, chances of either tornadoes or severe wind gusts seem too low at the moment to warrant a Lvl 1.
... northern Russia ...
Ahead of a deep low near the surface, a band of steeper lapse rates within the mid-tropospheric trough will cross modestly moist airmass. Skinny CAPE profiles are forecast combined with 10 to 15 m/s of 0-1 km shear and low LCLs, yielding a threat of tornadoes and severe wind gusts.
... Central to southern Russia ...
Organised storms forming in MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of around 20 m/s are forecast, offering threats of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Lvl 2 is issued for the zone of stronger shear and where frontal wave will provide substantial lift for noticeable coverage of storms. Further south, both shear and coverage decrease, gradually decreasing the severe weather risk.
