Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 10 Feb 2026 06:00 to Wed 11 Feb 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Feb 2026 21:13
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of W/SW France and N Spain mainly for severe gusts and a tornado risk.

SYNOPSIS

Ongoing negative NAO regime forces wave-flux into S Europe as numerous low-amplitude waves progress E. The main focus of CAPE/shear overlap exists over parts of France, which resides in the positive EFI vapor flux and high hear regime. Blocking with dried continental air cover Scandinavia into E Europe, where no DMC activity is forecast. Eddy-driven jet interaction with the marine airmass atop the Mediterranean causes numerous areas with an augmented thunderstorm risk.

DISCUSSION

... W/SW France ...

A passing occlusion drives the thunderstorm risk, as the activity ramps up around noon onwards. Ongoing issues with the vertical themal profile in NWP guidance results in various CAPE respone with EZ being more bullish than f.ex. ICON.
Overall impressive CAPE is forcast but initial meager LLCAPE should confine the severe risk to some small hail and strong to isolated severe gust reports. An isolated tornado over W into SW France is not ruled out, where steadily improving LL moisture and diabatic heating overlap and improve LL destabilization a bit.

A somewhat more pronounced overnight tornado risk evolves over W-CNTRL France ahead of another wave (21Z onwards). Low-tropospheric mass response causes curved LL hodographs with impressive LL SR inflow within an adequately unstable 0-3 km background layer. Beside the tornado threat, severe gusts are also forecast in near 50 kt 0-3 km background flow.

That prolonged event was covered in a broad level 1 area although the overnight event could be a borderline 1/2 event for W-CNTRL France (especially for the gust risk).

N Spain was added to the level 1 for similar background support and CAPE/shear space.

... Mediterranean ...

Numerous areas of interest exist but convection stays either more elevated or has weak CAPE and/or shear for anything organized. Hence no level issuance.