Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 27 May 2006 06:00 to Sun 28 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 26 May 2006 23:24
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Broad and strong upper westerly flow exists across Europe ... with series of imbedded vort maxima moving eastwards across E and N-central Europe on Saturday. At the SFC ... moderately intense low pressure system will move eastwards across the Norwegian Sea.

DISCUSSION

N UK ... N Scandinavia ... NW Russia ... Baltic States ... N Belarus

It seems that there will be multiple foci for convective development across N-central and NRN Europe ... mainly in the thermal-trough regions that are associated with the various vort maxima at the NRN rim of the upper frontal zone. Indications are that this activity will occur in weakly sheared environment ... and organized severe thunderstorm threat should be rather low.

E Romania ... Moldova ... S-central Ukraine

More substantial severe threat may develop across E Romania ... S Moldova ... and the S-central Ukraine ahead of vigorous upper trough in weakly unstable air mass. Low-level shear in excess of 12 m/s ... 0-3 km SRH in excess of 150 J/kg ... and deep shear of about 20 m/s should support organized severe storms ... with the threat of line segments/bow echoes and supercells. These may be associated with damaging winds ... large hail ... and tornadoes.