Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 05 Aug 2006 06:00 to Sun 06 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 04 Aug 2006 17:48
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Large and intense upper low is anchored over central Europe ... with plume of moist/unstable air mass present over E Europe E of the upper low. Weak cyclogenesis is expected over E Europe ahead of various small vort maxima at the periphery of the upper low.

DISCUSSION

Level-One Area

Main focus for potentially severe evolution should exist S and E of the upper low ... where CAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range and 15 to 20 m/s deep shear should be present. LLS should be maximized in the vicinity of small SFC low to
develop over the central Ukraine/Belarus late in the day ... where threat for an isolated tornado or two should be largest. Otherwise ... main threats should be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

NE Germany

In response to weak LL cyclogenesis over W poland/NE Germany ... LL shear should increase to 10 to 15 m/s in the late evening hours ... with DLS on the order of 15 m/s. It seems that stratiform precip will prevail amidst LL WAA regime at the nose of plume of warm/moist air wrapping around the N side of the upper low. A few imbedded/elevated convective cells should accompany the stratiform precip however. ATTM it does not seem that widespread SFC-based TSTMS will form ... though any cell that becomes SFC-based after about 18Z should have enhanced potential of becoming mesocyclonic ... with an attendant tornado/hail threat. Severe threat appears to be too low ATTM to warrant a level-one risk.