Forecast Update
Valid: Thu 19 Oct 2006 14:00 to Fri 20 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 19 Oct 2006 14:50
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

The intensity of the small mid-level low entering the Channel region was not fully caught by GFS. It appears shear and forcing for upward motion ahead of the system is stronger than initially forecast as was indicated by 12Z soundings of Brest and Bordeaux.

Partially linearly organized thunderstorms over western France, the Channel Region and later across southern England will likely produce some strong and severe (>25 m/s) gusts in places. Additionally, given the strong low-level shear, development of a tornado or two is possible.