Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 02 Jun 2010 06:00 to Thu 03 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 01 Jun 2010 23:01
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of NE Europe mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Italy mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Quasi-stationary upper low over central Europe will be the steering feature for most parts of Europe with unsettled conditions over a vast area, including the central Mediterranean and E-Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Large level 1 region ...

Large-scale surface pressure fall occurs over SE/E-Europe and results in a wide warm sector. This sector is characterized by rich LL moisture and persistent WAA beneath a northward surging EML, so SBCAPE may surpass 1kJ/kg over an expansive area. Limiting factor for a more robust severe thunderstorm event will be missing forcing and quite warm low/mid-levels, increasing capping strength. Hence, initiation will be bound to the fronts, which were highlighted by the level 1. Multicells and supercells are forecast in this level 1 with large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event possible. Due to the more or less quasi-stationary fronts, locally excessive rainfall amounts may occur due to training storms or clustering.

Initiation east of the cold front / south of the warm front is more conditional due to aforementioned limiting factors. Thermodynamics remain conducive for rapid thunderstorm development with large hail and strong wind gusts being the main hazard. Due to the more limited coverage, no level 1 was issued.

... Central Italy ...

Enhanced thunderstorm activity occurs in the path of a SE-ward sliding upper low. Kinematics/thermodynamics remain displaced from each other, so despite isolated large hail and a funnel/tornado event due to augmented LL CAPE support, nothing widespread severe is forecast.