Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Jan 2016 06:00 to Fri 29 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Jan 2016 23:06
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the north-western British Isles mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A strongly-forced synoptic situation is expected through-out the period across northern Europe. A well-developed vort-max will move across Scandinavia. At low levels, an intense surface low will be associated with severe winds. Convective activity is expected to be pretty weak as cold air advection outruns the region with stretching below the mid-level jet streak. High mixing ratios and steep lapse rates will be therefore separated. Additionally, forcing will be limited and low-level convergence is expected to be rather weak.

In the wake of this storm, a vort-max travels across the northern British Isles into the North Sea. An upper-level front will promote low-level stretching of a cold, maritime air mass, where thunderstorms are expected to form. Given strong background flow, thunderstorms will be likely accompanied by severe wind gusts. Although the convective contribution is limited, a level 1 is issued. Later in the day, the upper-level front will weaken and thunderstorm potential gradually decreases across the North Sea, although some upslope flow along the western coasts of Scandinavia could allow for a second round of storms.

A third storm system will reach the British Isles late in the period. Models indicate explosive cyclogenesis NW of the British Isles. But again, low-level moisture will be pushed away ahead of steepening lapse rates, limiting thunderstorm potential.