Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 02 Oct 2019 07:00 to Thu 03 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 02 Oct 2019 06:53
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across parts of the Mediterranean and Balkans mainly for excessive rainfall and large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An area of scattered to widespread deep moist convection is forecast across much of the central Mediterranean, ahead of a deep trough advancing eastwards and a cold front sagging southwards across the sea. Across the western coastline of Italy and Balkans models simulate an overlap of dewpoints ranging from 16 to 20 deg C, CAPE values ranging between 1 and 2kJ/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear reaching around 15 m/s. In such environment, strong and well organised storms can be expected. The most likely convective type will be large clusters, or a parallel stratiform squall line, oriented along the initiating boundary, with tendency for cell training provided the boundary gets anchored to local coastline / orography.

The primary severe weather threat will be excessive rainfall, followed perhaps by large hail owing to solid buoyancy in the hail growth zone as revealed by forecast soundings. Storms are forecast to spread southwards during the day, reaching northern Africa, Sicily and western coastline of Greece by Thursday morning.